According to the RKI estimates of each of the Coronavirus fell ill Person is currently in Germany, on average, only one more. This is a success, a virologist Christian Drosten. However, he warns of dangerous Background effects, which are not reflected in the Figures again – and an unexpected force of the wave of Infection can cause.
In Germany, the reproductive value of the Virus, according to current estimates, just under 1. Virologist Christian Drosten of the Berlin Charité, a rating of the number very positive. The easing of the measures, the virologist, therefore, obvious, preparing for him but also Worried, as he is in the NDR Podcast "The Coronavirus-Update" told.
"Of course, it is not so, that the policy assumes that the R-value of about 1 ansteigt", says Drosten. "The question you must always ask yourself is: Can we have missed something? If Yes: What might that be?"
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Specifically, Drosten says the Virus, despite all the success, so to speak, "under the ceiling of the Maßnahmen" more widespread – and unnoticed. Two diffusion effects will occur, according to Drosten: local Diffusion and age-Diffusion.
To have, especially at the beginning of the pandemic in Germany, the local Virus is formed in Hotspots such as the district of Heinsberg. By a quick contact to minimize the heterogeneous concentration of cases was frozen, so to speak. This card was signed in the country on the one side, and on the other from the Virus-affected places.
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Even now, the eye-catching local outgrowths of the initial introduction, you can still detect it. What is not to be found, according to Drosten, however, so far, in the Figures, the cases that were deported in the Background in other areas. For example, the fact that still visits or out of town was to have taken place or certain Meetings under the exception rules.
At the beginning of the pandemic, the Virus is transmitted particularly by the young and middle-aged population. Older people had initially been little affected.
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Drosten, however, a "slow proliferation over time in the older age groups, we have not noticed until now, yet." He feared that already the chain of Infection running under the older persons. Reasons for this could be that you have just met with Acquaintances or visiting the grandkids get.
"Infection wave, which is not expected to hatte"
Currently, such a conditional excesses of these background effects were not seen in the Figures. But: “If the reproductive value should rise back above 1, go, suddenly, the epidemic activity in a disproportionate manner because of the local Verteilung", Drosten designates his fear.
Ensure fully agreed with him, that "the people that are popping up everywhere in Germany as a Neuinfizierte, not more the 35-Year-old, but suddenly, the 70-Year-old, and whose social contacts are also, perhaps, in this age group."
"Once you have a stunner of a wave of Infection within a month that you don’t expect hatte", the virologist explains. Also, with a view to the intensive care units of hospitals, such an effect could be a burden "in a way, with you now in the Moment, not rechnet" with a lead.
"I expect it to kommt"
The virologist makes it clear that such a development for him is not just speculation: "The diffusion effects, which are almost inevitably. I expect it to happen – and that we must suddenly make a re-evaluation of our old experiences in Germany and, perhaps, no more time for this re-evaluation have."
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