Corona: for How long? Or we are only at the beginning of the crisis? – Naturopathy Naturopathy Specialist Portal
We are only at the beginning of the pandemic
There is something about 100 days ago now, as the world health organization (WHO) reported for the first Time a group of unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. Approximately a month later, the WHO announced a global pandemic. Many people ask themselves now, how long will it take until this is over. Several experts emphasize that we are only at the beginning of the pandemic.
Professor Christian Drosten in Germany is probably the best known expert in relation to corona virus. He emphasized in his NDR Podcast, that we don’t have to make it clear that we are here in the middle of an epidemic, but only at the beginning. A realistic estimate as to how long this pandemic will stop, it must first be known how many people have already had the disease, and antibodies have formed.
Anti body tests are intended to show where we are
Many people hope that, in a nutshell, is that many people have the infection already and the anti-bodies have to have without ever noticed. “That’s not gonna make out,” emphasizes Drosten. “I can say that, among other things, because we test, of course, already started to, because I hear from colleagues in other countries, where the epidemics are similar to advanced that is just like that.” It has been discovered surprisingly large number of undetected true positive anti-body results.
Growth rate of anti-body positive unknown
According to the assessment of the Drosten, the pandemic stops when approximately 70 percent of the population have formed antibodies. “We also want to understand how quickly that happens,” says the virologist. As a base line to wide-scale anti-body tests need to be conducted to see how many antibodies are positive in the population. Even when the not be after evaluation of Drosten currently, many people serve such a Test as a point of reference for the current state. Such Tests should then be repeated at regular intervals to see how quickly this group grows. Only with this Knowledge, a realistic estimate could be made.
Dark figure in Heinsberg determined
Another renowned expert, in this context, Professor Dr. Hendrik Streeck, the Westphalia for the state government of North Rhine-forscht directly in the heavily affected district of Heinsberg. The Team Streeck revealed for the first time, the dark figure within the heavily affected area. A sample of the population in Gangelt were found in 14 percent of people tested antibodies. Two percent had an acute infection.
This shows that even in small affected areas, the epidemic is still in the initial phase. Other places in Germany, the number of antibodies is likely to be positive even far below this value. But there is also good news: The mortality rate among the Infected in Gangelt is situated at 0.37 percent, and well below the 1.98%, indicating the Johns Hopkins University as a mortality rate.
We must for the time being, with SARS-CoV-2 life
“The first results of the study show that this is a Virus that should be taken seriously and that the previous actions were correct, to the spread,” says Streeck its interim results. “We have to learn to live with SARS-2, and the dangers in perspective.”
When will be the first vaccine available?
Dr. Gregory Poland is an expert on infectious diseases and Director of a vaccine research group at the prestigious Mayo Clinic in the United States. The Mayo Clinic is also the national coordination centre for Plasma therapies with antibodies against COVID-19. In a recent communication from the clinic in Poland is an evaluation about what time is the first vaccine available in the United States will be.
Currently groups around the globe, including the Mayo Clinic were involved in the development of the vaccine. “There are approximately 60 vaccine candidates, to flocking,” explains Poland. So far, only a single in the United States is in a Phase I clinical study. The question of when a vaccine against COVID-could 19 be available, according to Dr. Poland is a difficult question. “I think a more optimistic – and I’ll say, very optimistic – milestone could be in the period of 18 to 24 months,” the evaluation of vaccine experts. (vb)